NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2022

Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at Los Angeles Rams (3-8)
Line: Seahawks by 6.5. Total: 41.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: If you asked me to break down this matchup ahead of the 2022 season, I would have confidently stated that the Rams would dominate a pathetic offense led by Geno Smith. “How can the Seahawks’ offensive line block Aaron Donald?” I’d ask. I think I’d project the Seahawks to three points. Maybe four.

Things can certainly change in 13 weeks, huh? Everything has changed concerning these teams. Geno Smith has all but locked up the Comeback Player of the Year award, as he has formed a great connection with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. He’s also protected very well. Meanwhile, the Rams, who had the league’s second-worst pressure rate, won’t even have Donald anymore because he has suffered an injury.

Smith will have all the time in the world to scan the field and find his talented receivers. He’ll also be able to watch Kenneth Walker pick up chunks of yardage. The Rams have been great against the run, but that’ll certainly change with Donald out of the lineup.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford’s status is unknown, but it doesn’t sound like he will be available. If so, it’ll be Bryce Perkins again. Perkins had some nice scrambles, but largely failed to lead the Rams to any significant offensive production last week.

I don’t see why things would suddenly change. Perkins is a raw passer and isn’t protected well at all. The Seahawks don’t have a great pass rush, but they should still be able to get to Perkins, who won’t even have Allen Robinson at his disposal this week. His top options are Van Jefferson and Ben Skowronek. Good luck, Bryce.

If the Rams had any sort of rushing attack, they could utilize it to take some pressure off Perkins. Josh Jacobs just ripped through this defense last week, but Cam Akers and Kryen Williams are incapable of replicating that feat, especially when considering the dreadful blocking in front of them.

RECAP: It hasn’t been announced yet, but Stafford and Donald aren’t expected to play. There’s chatter that Stafford will miss the rest of the season, while Donald doesn’t exactly have an incentive to rush back from his ankle sprain.

Assuming both players are sidelined, I love the Seahawks. I know this line is high, but I don’t see how the Rams can be remotely competitive and stay within single digits. One dynamic I love fading is bad backup quarterbacks on terrible teams. We saw this twice last week with Trevor Siemian and Perkins starting for the Bears and Rams, respectively. We went against both teams for a six-unit profit.

I’m once again betting against the Rams, who are completely devoid of talent right now. They can’t block, they can’t run the ball, they can’t get to the quarterback, they can’t stop the pass, and they don’t have an aerial attack. The only thing they could do well was contain the run, and now that is even compromised in the wake of Donald’s injury.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Four Seahawks had illnesses on the injury report. I was wondering why the sharps moved to betting the Rams, so this could explain why. I’m going to remove my projected units in this game for now.

SATURDAY NOTES: Matthew Stafford is out, and so is about half of Los Angeles’ roster. Seriously, if you want a good laugh, go look at their injury report. That said, I’m not betting the Seahawks because there are now 10 Seahawks with illness designations. Most of them were full in Friday’s practice, but that doesn’t mean they’re 100 percent.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s some serious sharp money coming in on the Rams, likely because the Seahawks are dealing with the flu. I don’t want any part of this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, the sharps are all over the Seahawks because of the illness in their locker room. Also, the Rams are getting a couple of offensive linemen back from injury. I have no interest in betting this game.

Miami Dolphins (8-3) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4)
Line: 49ers by 4.5. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: .

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MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins have possessed an explosive offense ever since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury. They’ve torched everyone, but it’s important to recognize whom they’ve battled in that span. They’ve taken on the Steelers (without T.J. Watt), Lions, Bears, Browns, and Texans. The adjusted EPA pass defenses for those teams are: 29th, 19th, 32nd, 18th, and 24th. In other words, Tagovailoa hasn’t battled a team in the upper half of pass defense since his return to action.

This is Tagovailoa’s first real test, and to make matters worse, he’ll be handicapped by a major injury on the offensive line. That would be Terron Armstead getting banged up last week. I would normally be fine with Armstead being the lone offensive lineman missing in action, but the Dolphins will be asking a backup left tackle to block Nick Bosa, which is far from ideal.

I still think the Dolphins will score some points aerially because of how Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle match up against San Francisco’s cornerbacks. However, the Dolphins won’t be able to lean on the run either because the 49ers are excellent at shutting down rushers.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers love attacking the middle of the field, so teams need to be able to defend that area if they want a chance at beating San Francisco. Stopping the run is extremely vital because doing so will allow Jimmy Garoppolo to operate in favorable play-action situations.

The Dolphins are definitely strong against the run. They just completely shut down Dameon Pierce and Nick Chubb in consecutive weeks. Christian McCaffrey shouldn’t get much on the ground, which will hurt Garoppolo.

As for defending the pass over the middle of the field, that’s more complicated. The Dolphins have poor rankings in that regard, but much of that is based on early-season numbers. Miami has improved its aerial defense tremendously in the wake of the Bradley Chubb trade. Chubb has greatly strengthened the pass rush, which will help the Dolphins in all regards.

RECAP: I would have been on the Dolphins at this number a week ago, but Armstead’s injury has changed everything. Armstead being out is a huge deal because blocking Bosa will be a big problem.

I don’t plan on betting this game, however. I think the 49ers are probably the right side, but I hate the number. I made this spread -2.5 without factoring in the Armstead injury, so if I’m right, we’re getting no value with San Francisco. I could see the Dolphins getting a late score to lose by three, so not actually getting the three is an issue.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Terron Armstead missed Wednesday’s practice, which was expected. Christian McCaffrey didn’t practice either. I still have no plans to bet this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Terron Armstead and Austin Jackson are out for the Dolphins, which is a huge blow versus San Francisco’s pass rush. However, Trent Williams missed Friday’s practice with a back problem, so his absence would hurt quite a bit. One thing I didn’t talk about was Mike McDaniel’s familiarity with the 49ers’ roster, so that’s another reason not to bet San Francisco.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I think I’m going to bet the 49ers if Trent Williams is active. I see this as a statement game for them, while the Dolphins are down their two tackles. Check back around 3:30 p.m. to see what I’m doing with this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Trent Williams is active, so I’m betting the 49ers. As I said this morning, this is a statement game for them with the public pounding the Dolphins. Miami doesn’t have either starting tackle, which is very problematic against San Francisco’s pass rush. The sharps are all over the 49ers. The best line is -5.5 -105 at FanDuel.

Los Angeles Chargers (6-5) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-7)
Line: Raiders by 2.5. Total: 49.5.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: It’s difficult to imagine the Chargers not scoring tons of points in this game. They’re down some offensive linemen and Mike Williams, and yet it doesn’t matter. That’s how good of a matchup this is for them.

The Raiders have a miserable defense, and they are worse versus the pass than the run, at least when Denzel Perryman is on the field. This doesn’t bode well against the Chargers, who love to pass primarily. Justin Herbert is coming off an excellent second half, which he could parlay into a great start in this game. Herbert will be able to connect frequently to Keenan Allen, Joshua Palmer and Austin Ekeler against a Raider team that can’t cover anyone.

The primary issue for the Raiders is that they’re not generating enough pressure on the quarterback. Maxx Crosby has been great, but he’s been the only one who can apply consistent heat. The Raiders produce the sixth-worst pressure rate in the NFL despite Crosby’s presence, so Herbert will have all the time he needs.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: What I wrote about the Chargers also applies to the Raiders. It’s difficult to imagine the Raiders not scoring tons of points in this game, as they have severe matchup edges as well.

Unlike the Chargers, the Raiders will be able to beat their opponent both on the ground and through the air. The Chargers have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, which bodes extremely poorly in their matchup against the Josh Jacobs. The Raider back is coming off a stellar performance against the Seahawks. Jacobs should be able to trample the Chargers as well.

Meanwhile, Derek Carr figures to have a good game against the Chargers. San Angeles hasn’t generated a quality pass rush without Joey Bosa, ranking fifth-worst in the NFL in that regard. The Chargers won’t be able to cover Davante Adams at all, and Carr will have ample enough time to find him.

RECAP: I don’t get why the Raiders are getting points at home. These teams are even as far as I’m concerned, and yet, the Chargers are favored in Las Vegas for some reason. This reminds me of last week’s Chargers-Cardinals game where Arizona was getting points at home for some reason. The Cardinals were winning for most of the fourth quarter, and while they lost, they still covered.

It sucks not to get the +3 like we did with the Cardinals last week, but I still like the Raiders, as I think there’s a decent chance that they’ll win outright. I’m willing to bet a few units on the Raiders.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Chargers have a bunch of key players on the injury report, including Derwin James, Corey Linsley, Mike Williams, and Trey Pipkins. I’m including the Raiders as part of my teaser this week, pairing them with Cincinnati.

SATURDAY NOTES: Mike Williams and Trey Pipkins are both out, while talented linebacker Drue Tranquill missed Friday’s practice with an illness. Sharp money has continued to pour in on the Raiders, who are now favored. I’m moving this to four units.

SATURDAY NOTES II: The sharps have sent this spread skyrocketing toward -3. It’s -2.5 in most sportsbooks. I don’t know if it’ll get to -3, but I’m going to lock in the -2 -110 at Bookmaker just in case it does.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Something I forgot to mention is that Nate Hobbs, the Raiders’ top cornerback, is returning this week. He’ll be able to smother Keenan Allen.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No surprise inactives in this game. The sharps have been pounding the Raiders like crazy, which I love to see. I locked this in at -2, and there’s not much of a difference at -2.5.

Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)
Line: Chiefs by 2.5. Total: 53.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: If you sense that Joe Burrow has had Kansas City’s number, you’re not imagining things. Burrow torched the Chiefs twice last year, including the playoff victory in Kansas City. Burrow fired four touchdowns in the prior matchup.

This is not a fluke. The Chiefs have a big problem, and that would be their reliance on the blitz to pressure the quarterback. This is a death sentence against Burrow, who was the top quarterback against the blitz last year. In fact, Burrow was so good versus the blitz in 2021 that he has become the least-blitzed quarterback in the NFL. The Chiefs could opt not to blitz, but then they won’t get to Burrow at all. Either way, Burrow figures to torch Kansas City, especially with Ja’Marr Chase returning to action.

Even worse for the Chiefs, they have to worry about Joe Mixon. The talented back figures to return from concussion protocol this week. If so, he’ll be able to trample the Chiefs, who have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Bengals can get to the quarterback as well, but unlike the Chiefs, they don’t have to blitz to do it. They have a talented defensive front that was healthy for the first time in a while last week.

Not having to blitz Patrick Mahomes is important because, like Burrow, Mahomes is phenomenal when blitzed. Slowing down Mahomes is possible when he’s rushed with only four players, and the Bengals can succeed in that regard.

The weakness for the Bengals, at least prior to their defensive tackles returning from injury, has been their ability to stop the run. This won’t be much of an issue against the Chiefs, as Andy Reid is wont to forget the running portion of his playbook in his hotel room. Plus, it’s not like Isiah Pacheco is much of a threat.

RECAP: I was pretty pissed Monday afternoon when I checked the Week 13 spreads for the first time since Sunday night. I was hoping to bet the Bengals at +3, but the line already dropped to +2.5. I considered posting an early write-up, but I didn’t have enough time. Plus, I figured I would have an opportunity to do so Monday evening.

So much for that! The sharps made sure I wouldn’t have a great betting opportunity because they pounded Cincinnati at +3. It sucks not to get the +3 because three is the No. 1 primary key number in the NFL, but I still really like the Bengals at +2.5. I don’t think they should be underdogs at home, and I believe they will win outright because of their various matchup edges.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ja’Marr Chase was limited in Wednesday’s practice, but I would be surprised if he sat out again.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ja’Marr Chase was full in Friday’s practice, so he should be ready to roll. I like the Bengals, and I’d love them if we were still getting +3.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps were on the Bengals earlier in the week, but other pro money has come in on the Chiefs. I hope we get a better +3 -135 that is currently available at Bookmaker and Bovada.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Joe Mixon is out, but that doesn’t bother me. The sharps are split on this game, but I like the Bengals. The best +3 I see is for -133 vig at Bookmaker, which isn’t great. I’ll just bet the +2.5 +100 at Bovada.

Indianapolis Colts (4-7-1) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3)
Line: Cowboys by 11. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: Cowboys-Colts seems so lopsided for the general public, and while this might be true for the other side of the ball – we’ll get to that, of course – I don’t think that can be applied when Dallas has possession. Despite the return of Dak Prescott about a month ago, the Cowboys are still a run-first offense, as the coaching staff wants to establish Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard before anything.

That won’t be so easy against the Colts. Indianapolis has the second-best EPA run defense in the NFL. There’s still a chance Pollard will break a long gain because of his supreme ability, but this is not going to be a matchup where the Cowboys get Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott to plow forward for five yards per gain on average.

Prescott doesn’t have the easiest matchup either. The Colts have the eighth-ranked pressure rate in the NFL, and they’ve done a great job of limiting No. 1 receivers this season. Dallas doesn’t have any great, consistent options beyond CeeDee Lamb, and Stephon Gilmore should do a good job of limiting him.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: As mentioned, the Colts have some severe issues on this side of the ball. This primarily revolves around Indianapolis’ offensive line, which has been a huge disappointment this year. Matt Ryan has done extremely poorly when dealing with pressure; heading into the Monday night affair against the Steelers, Ryan had three touchdowns and seven interceptions when under pressure. This is a comparable touchdown-to-interception ratio that the likes of Zach Wilson and Mac Jones have maintained.

Ryan, of course, will be dealing with a ton of pressure in this matchup. No one gets after the quarterback better than Micah Parsons and company, so Ryan could potentially self-destruct.

The Colts will obviously hope to establish Jonathan Taylor to keep the ball out of Ryan’s hands. This might be possible because the Cowboys are below average versus the run, but it won’t happen if Dallas establishes a quick, early lead.

RECAP: There’s a scenario I can envision in which Ryan is having a complete meltdown and giving Dallas’ defense a quick lead with an early touchdown. However, I think there’s a much better chance that the Colts cover. This is an extremely high spread. The advance line was Dallas -9.5, and my personal number is -6.5. If you think that’s low, consider that the Colts recently held a lead against the Eagles for the majority of the game. They ultimately lost, but they covered easily.

The Colts generally keep games close. Excluding their Week 2 game when they were missing half their roster, the Colts have been competitive with every single opponent when Ryan has been under center. They beat the Chiefs. They lost to the Titans by single digits twice. They defeated the Raiders on the road. They almost beat the Eagles. They were about 20 yards away from tying the game against a very underrated Steeler team on Monday night.

The Cowboys, conversely, are coming off some big wins, and I don’t think Indianapolis will be on their radar. I love the Colts in this spot, and this spread is out of control, so I’m going to bet Indianapolis heavily.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Trevon Diggs and Michael Gallup were sidelined Wednesday with an illness, but they were the only two players on the Dallas injury report with an illness designation.

SATURDAY NOTES: Trevon Diggs and Michael Gallup ended up being DNP-DNP-limited with their illnesses, so they should play, but it remains to be seen if they’ll be 100 percent. The sharps have jumped on the Colts, and understandably so.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’ll see what happens with Diggs and Gallup, but I love the Colts regardless. This line is way too high.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Colts remain the play at this ridiculous line. The best spread is +11 -105 at Bookmaker. The sharps are on the Colts.

New Orleans Saints (4-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)
Line: Buccaneers by 4. Total: 40.5.
Monday, Dec. 5, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Tampa Bay, where tonight, the Tampa Bay Schmuckaneers taken on the New Orleans ‘Aints. Guys, does anyone care about this game? I can’t focus with all the shootings going on. It seems like specific groups are being attacked lately. What if the next shooter goes after die-hard Eagles fans? If so, I’ll be the first one gone! We need to ban guns now!

Emmitt: Jeff Reilly, I does not understand the logicalness of somebody saying we need to ban gums. I like to chew bubble gums every day even though my dentistologist say this gonna give me lots of cavalries in my mouth. I look up what this mean in the dictionarysaurus rex, and he say cavalry are the horsie guy so this mean I gonna have horsie guy in my mouths.

Reilly: I wish I could have horsie guys in my mouth too, but we’re talking about guns; not gums, Emmitt. Gums doesn’t even make any sense in this context, so why did you think we were talking about gums? We’re talking about guns, and we need to ban them now!

Tollefson: Shut up, Kevin, we need guns to protect ourselves from the government. What’s going to happen when government officials come to my manor and try to take back the women I’ve kidnapped? I’m going to need to defend myself and my female slaves.

Reilly: Tolly, I’m sorry, but you’re on your own in this one. We totally need to ban guns. Right, Senator President John Festerman?

John Fetterman: We need to ban guns. We need to unban guns. We need to ban horsie guys. The horsie guys are horsies. They are guys. The horsies are. They are the guns. The horsie guy shoot the guns and they chew the gums. When the gums are chewed, the cavalry comes. That’s why we need to ban the cavalry.

Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! I’m glad you’re onboard with my banning guns initiative! Maybe I should run for office myself. I can be like that cool Beta guy who has lots of friends and always wins elections.

Adam Schefter: Kevin, I have breaking news, and I just checked with John Lynch if I can break the news. I got both my nipples injected with four Covid-19 booster shots and then smeared the vaccine all over all 80 masks I own so that I can report this latest news. Then, I wore all 80 masks on my face despite being in a car by myself. Kevin, I can tell you that you’ve lost your election running for office with zero percent of the vote and 100 percent reporting. Back to you, Kevin!

Reilly: A**hole, I haven’t even run for office yet! You’re going to be fired one of these days with your flimsy reporting. Roger Goodell, can’t you do something about this? Fire Schefter now!

Goodell: Hello, fellow hu-man, as a hu-man myself, I like to fire people like other hu-mans. Like all other hu-mans who fire people, I will utilize a random number generator to determine whom to fire now. Running random number generator. The person who will be fired is Roger Goodell. Apologies, Roger Goodell, you have been fired by Roger Goodell. Error, must restart.

Reilly: I’m glad I wasn’t the one who was fired. If I got fired, I’d shoot everyone with Mother’s guns! Don’t you think we should ban guns, Mr. President?

Joe Biden: You’re right, Beto, we need to ban guns, and you’re just the guy to do it. We need to make sure those mega MAGA people don’t have guns so we can protect ourselves, and we need to have guns ourselves so we can kill the mega MAGA people, and also anyone who wants to disrupt my shower time with, you know, you know the girl who is my daughter, you know, you know the thing. Our armed guards stand outside the bathroom while I shower with the, you know, you know the thing, they’re defending democracy, which is real important for the falseinanashabidacompost. That’s why, that’s why we need the cavalry to protect the gums. The gums are important to our democracy, and so is the, umm, you know, you know the thing.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe’s brain isn’t working, which is far too common for Sleepy Joe these days, I’ve been calling him President Alzheimer’s, which is a great nickname, the best nickname, except he’s not the president, not the real president anyway, there’s no way Sleepy Joe ever got 81 million votes, not 81 million real votes, there was a lot of fraud, so much fraud, so maybe his nickname should be Fraud President Alzheimer’s, what do you think about that, should we call him Fraud President Alzheimer’s, or just Sleepy Joe, I don’t know which one is the best one, but they’re both great, probably the best nicknames anyone has ever heard, and everyone agrees, but that’s only what was I was told, even though it just happened, I know because I have the best sources of information, better than what Schefter has, little Adam Schefter I call him, what a total disaster and a total disgrace.

Wolfley: DONALD, YOU ARE NOT THE BEST AT MAKING UP NICKNAMES. YOU ARE SECOND-BEST, ONLY AFTER A STRAWBERRY WITH LIPS, A NOSE RING AND THREE BUTTOCKS FROM MY HOME PLANET.

Reilly: Guys, you’re once again getting way off topic here. We need to ban guns for everyone except me so the bad gun owners don’t come after me. But if we don’t, you’ll protect me, right New Daddy?

Jay Cutler: Protect you? Who are you again?

Reilly: Very funny, New Daddy, but the bad guys with guns will have the last laugh if you don’t take this seriously. Abolish the Second Amendment now!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about the Bill of Rights, Kevin. Let’s talk about the first Amendment, Kevin, which is freedom of speech, Kevin. This is why you don’t go to prison for the dumb things you say, Kevin. You touched on the second, Kevin, so let’s get to the third, Kevin, which is that you can’t be forced to quarter soldiers, Kevin. Though I bet you’d love to quarter some soldiers in your bedroom, Kevin. How about the fourth, Kevin, which is search and seizures, Kevin. You don’t have anything worth owning anyway, Kevin, so let’s just move on, Kevin. What do you think about the fifth, Kevin, the right to remain silent, Kevin. I wish you’d exercise this more, Kevin, because you have nothing important to say, Kevin. Let’s get to the sixth-

Reilly: I’VE HAD ENOUGH OF YOU, CHARLES DAVIS! I’M GOING TO GO AFTER YOU WITH MY GUNS IF YOU’RE NOT CAREFUL! We’ll be back after this!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Saints have had Tom Brady’s number ever since he joined the Buccaneers, but it’s important to understand why. The way to beat Brady, or any elite quarterback, without outscoring them in a shootout is to generate heavy pressure on them without blitzing. The Saints were able to do this quite well with Cameron Jordan, Marcus Davenport and the rest of the defensive front in recent years.

It’s unclear why, but the Saints haven’t been able to generate the same sort of heat on opposing quarterbacks this year. They have the fourth-worst pressure rate in the NFL. They wouldn’t be able to get to Brady under normal circumstances, but things have changed recently in the wake of Tristan Wirfs’ injury. The Buccaneers already had issues blocking, so perhaps New Orleans will be able to rattle Brady after all.

The Saints should at least thrive when stopping Rachaad White. The rookie runner has been an upgrade over Leonard Fournette, but this New Orleans defense just did well to defend Christian McCaffrey.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints were extremely frustrating against the 49ers. They had the ball inside the San Francisco 5-yard line twice in the fourth quarter, yet failed to score a single point because of an Alvin Kamara fumble at the 1-yard line and a turnover on downs. The Saints moved the chains well in between the 20s in the second half, but couldn’t punch the ball into the end zone.

There’s no shame in failing to score against the 49ers, who have one of the top defenses in the NFL. San Francisco was able to apply heavy pressure on Andy Dalton without blitzing. The Buccaneers won’t be able to do this because of Shaq Barrett’s injury. Tampa Bay has to blitz frequently, which won’t work well against Andy Dalton. When blitzed this year, Dalton has completed 67 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and only one interception.

Kamara, meanwhile, should be able to redeem himself. The Buccaneers are 28th in adjusted run defense EPA compared to the 49ers’ fifth ranking in that regard. I imagine Kamara will be eager to prove himself after losing two fumbles.

RECAP: I don’t think the Buccaneers are good enough to be favored by more than a field goal over a competent opponent. The Saints are 4-8, but they’ve been close to winning some games they’ve lost this year. For example, they outplayed the Panthers in Week 3, but self-destructed with countless mistakes. The following week, they were a field goal away from beating Minnesota. They led for most of the Cincinnati game in Week 6, but lost at the end. The Saints could legitimately be 6-6 or 7-5 right now, and if that were the case, they would definitely not be getting more than a field goal.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have some major problems, particularly concerning their offensive line. Brady has not been protected well all year, and now Wirfs will be out of action. I don’t think Tampa Bay has a good chance of winning this game by more than a field goal.

I’m definitely going to be on the Saints for at least a medium-sized bet. If they get back more players from injury, this could be one of my top plays of the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’re still waiting for an injury report, so I’ll have better thoughts later in the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was reminded of how bad Andy Dalton is in primetime games, so I’m not going to bet the Saints.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m getting a bit sick just thinking about betting Andy Dalton in a primetime game. Can’t the Saints just play Jameis Winston?

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Buccaneers are down three members of their secondary, so I’m going to put a unit on the Saints. I don’t love this pick because of Dalton is playing in a primetime game, but the sharps have been betting New Orleans like crazy this week. The best line is +3.5 -115 at Bookmaker, Bovada, and BetMGM.